What Actually Sold in the Tri-Valley in Q3 2026: Prices, Speed & Surprises

Asking prices are opinions. Sold prices are facts. So instead of another roundup of what's listed, here's what actually closed across the Tri-Valley in Q3 2026 (July–September) — the real medians, the real pace, and the patterns hiding underneath.

The Q3 2026 Tri-Valley scorecard

Short answer: Prices stabilized after the 2024–25 dip — no crash, no boom. But homes took noticeably longer to sell, sale prices slipped to 98–99% of asking almost everywhere, and the market split in two: competitively priced homes under $1.5M still drew over-asking offers, while overpriced and $2M+ homes sat and cut.

City	Median sold (latest)	Trend	Pace	Sale-to-list
Pleasanton (single-family)	$1.59M (Sep)	+4.1% YoY*	37 avg days	98%
Dublin	$1.63M (Aug)	−3.1% YoY	17 days	98.1%
Livermore	$1.07M (Sep)	−3.4% YoY	~40 days	98%
San Ramon (single-family)	$1.74M (Aug)	+0.6% YoY	24 days	98.9%

*Pleasanton's September bounce came against one of last year's softest months — see below. Sources vary by methodology (MLS vs. county records); each city's section names its source.

Pleasanton: a bounce, with an asterisk

Pleasanton's single-family median told a three-act story in Q3: down 6.5% year over year in July, down 9.7% in August ($1.5M), then up 4.1% in September to $1.59M.

Before anyone calls it a rebound: last September's $1,527,000 median was one of the softest readings in over a year, so this year's comparison was easy to beat. The steadier gauge — average price per square foot — eased to $816 in September, essentially flat with last September's $813. And six closings above $3M flattered September's average. Honest read: prices have stabilized, not taken off.

The clearer signal is pace. Average days on market hit 37 in September — the highest in 13 months, rising every month since April. Same story in volume: 40 closings vs. 53 a year ago, with nearly identical inventory (79 active listings vs. 81). Same supply, fewer sales, longer waits: months of supply rose to 2.0 from 1.6.

Dublin: the volume exception

Dublin was the Tri-Valley's busiest story in August: 31 sales, up 24% year over year — the only Alameda County city where sales grew — with a $1.63M median (−3.1% YoY), 17 days on market, and 98.1% sale-to-list (C.A.R.). County records for August show a $1,375,000 median across all property types with 71 total sales.

September's Redfin read: the median held roughly flat (+0.7% YoY), but the average price fell ~4% and price per square foot dropped ~15% — a classic mix shift, meaning more smaller and entry-level homes sold, not that the same homes lost value. With 133 active listings and about 1 in 5 sellers cutting price, Dublin buyers currently have the most breathing room in the Tri-Valley. More on the city in my Dublin guide.

Livermore: where speed literally paid

Livermore closed 79 sales in September at a median of $1,069,500, averaging 98% of original asking (Compass Market Pulse). Overall medians remain the softest in the Tri-Valley — around −3.4% year over year — but the segment data is where it gets useful:

• Sold in under 15 days → 102% of asking. 15–30 days → 99%. 31–60 days → 94%. Over 60 days → 93%.
• $1M–$1.5M homes averaged 101% of list. $1.5M–$2M averaged 100%. Above $2M: 96% of list and 51 average days.
• One in four sales closed above asking — while 27% of sellers cut their price first.

Read that again if you're selling: in Livermore this quarter, the first two weeks were worth roughly 8–9 points of sale price versus sitting for two months. Pricing right at launch isn't a slogan; it's the whole game.

San Ramon: the steady one

San Ramon did what San Ramon does — stayed expensive and calm. August: $1.74M single-family median (+0.6% YoY), 42 sales (flat), 98.9% sale-to-list, 24 days on market, with listings up ~20% giving buyers more to choose from (C.A.R.). September county records show a $1,362,500 median across all property types, 60 sales, and buyers paying 99.2% of asking; about 18% of September sales were cash. Asking prices sit ~26% below the June 2022 peak — a reset that's already happened, quietly.

The three patterns that defined Q3

1. Speed = money. Every dataset says the same thing: homes that sold fast sold at or above asking; homes that sat sold for 93–98%. Days on market rose across the region all quarter.
2. Two markets, one map. Under ~$1.5M: still competitive. Over $2M: slow, negotiated, price-cut. Your experience of "the market" depends entirely on which band you're in.
3. Stabilization, not a rebound. $/sqft roughly flat, sale-to-list at 98–99%, volume down. Q3 2026 was the quarter the Tri-Valley stopped falling and started negotiating.

What this means heading into Q4

Buyers: You have time and leverage you didn't have in 2021 — use them on the homes that have sat 30+ days, where sellers have already cut once. But the good ones under $1.5M still move in two weeks; be ready.

Sellers: The quarter's data punishes wishful pricing and rewards sharp launch pricing. A home priced to the Q3 comps sells near (or above) asking in weeks; a home priced to 2022 sells in two months for ~93–94% of a number that was too high anyway.

Related reading: Is Now a Good Time to Buy in the Tri-Valley? (Fall 2026 Q&A) · What $1M Buys You in the Tri-Valley · Hayward Market Spotlight

Frequently asked questions

What was the median home price in the Tri-Valley in Q3 2026?
By city: Pleasanton single-family $1.59M (September), Dublin $1.63M (August), Livermore ~$1.07M (September), and San Ramon single-family $1.74M (August). Livermore remains the most affordable entry; San Ramon the priciest and steadiest.

Are Tri-Valley home prices recovering in 2026?
They've stabilized. Pleasanton's September median rose 4.1% year over year, but against a soft comparison month, and price per square foot is essentially flat. Dublin is roughly flat, Livermore is down ~3.4%, San Ramon up ~0.6%. It's stabilization, not a new boom.

How long did Tri-Valley homes take to sell in Q3 2026?
Longer than a year ago. Pleasanton's average hit 37 days in September (a 13-month high); Livermore averaged ~40 days; Dublin and San Ramon were faster at ~17–24 days on their August readings. Well-priced homes still sold in under two weeks.

Did homes sell above or below asking in Q3 2026?
Slightly below, on average — sale-to-list ratios ran 98–99% in most cities. But fast-selling homes still beat asking (102% for Livermore homes sold within 15 days), while homes on the market 60+ days averaged ~93%.

The bottom line

Q3 2026 in the Tri-Valley: real prices, real patience. The frenzy is gone, the crash never came, and what's left is a negotiator's market where the first two weeks of a listing matter more than any headline. Whether you're buying or selling this fall, the winning move is the same: price (or offer) off what actually sold — not what someone's asking.